Let me conclude by sharing with you my sense of the road ahead in Iraq . There are several possible outcomes. Iraq could emerge as a stable and responsible regional power with a political system that exhibits democratic characteristics and an economy that is more tolerant of private enterprise. This will not happen unless we are committed to a long term and expensive presence in Iraq . Consider South Korea . We have been there since the early 50’s. It was not until the 80’s that we began to see an irreversible commitment to the democratic process to complement an aggressive market economy.
If we are unwilling or unable to “stay the course†in Iraq, a premature departure by the United States or an ejection by a frustrated Iraqi government will lead to civil conflict and a explicit or implicit partition of the country that will force adjacent countries to exert their influence over events in Iraq. This situation will create a “ Lebanon on steroids†in the apt words of Tom Friedman.
http://www.senate.gov/~reed/speeches/SalveSpeechDecember62004.htm
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